Pennsylvania's Big Vote in 2020!

Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, has historically been a pivotal state in U.S. presidential elections, often reflecting broader national trends. In 2020, the state found itself once again at the center of a fiercely contested race between incumbent Republican Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Trump's narrow victory in 2016 by a mere 0.72% had signaled a significant shift in the state's traditional Democratic leanings, particularly in its post-industrial regions.

Biden's campaign aimed to reclaim these working-class voters while solidifying support in the state's urban centers and growing suburban areas. The election was not just about policy platforms but also about tapping into the economic anxieties and cultural identities of Pennsylvania's diverse electorate, from the Rust Belt to the Philadelphia suburbs.

The counting of votes in Pennsylvania became a focal point of national attention due to its delayed results and the unique voting methods employed. Pennsylvania law initially prioritized counting in-person votes cast on Election Day, which gave Donald Trump an early, substantial lead. However, a significant surge in mail-in ballots, predominantly cast by Democratic voters due to the COVID-19 pandemic and state legislation allowing no-excuse absentee voting, began to erode this advantage over the subsequent days.

The meticulous process of verifying and counting these mail-in ballots, particularly in populous Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia and Allegheny County, extended the vote tabulation for several days. This extended period fueled misinformation and legal challenges, underscoring the complexities of modern election administration and the impact of evolving voting practices on election outcomes.

Joe Biden's victory in Pennsylvania, by a margin of 1.16%, was largely attributed to his ability to outperform Hillary Clinton's 2016 results in key areas. He made significant inroads in the Philadelphia suburban counties, including Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and Chester, flipping or increasing Democratic margins in areas that had shown signs of shifting. Furthermore, Biden successfully reclaimed two of the three large industrial counties that had defected to Trump in 2016: Erie and Northampton.

While Trump maintained a reduced margin in Luzerne County, Biden's gains in other formerly swing or Democratic-leaning areas proved decisive. His performance in his birth county, Lackawanna, also improved. This pattern of suburban strength and partial recovery in industrial regions highlighted a complex recalibration of the electorate, driven by factors ranging from education levels to demographic changes.

Despite Joe Biden's win, Pennsylvania's vote in 2020 was statistically more Republican than the national average, marking the second consecutive presidential election where the state leaned right of the nation, a deviation from its historical alignment. This trend, not seen since the mid-20th century, positioned Pennsylvania as a critical bellwether state alongside Wisconsin and Michigan, states that have consistently voted with the winning presidential candidate for decades.

Biden's victory was also notable for being the first time a Democrat won the White House without carrying Luzerne County since Harry Truman in 1948, and it marked the first time Luzerne County voted for the statewide loser since 1932. The election underscored Pennsylvania's evolving political landscape, reflecting broader national debates on economic policy, social issues, and the very nature of American democracy.

Examining the granular voting data reveals deeper insights into Pennsylvania's 2020 election. Biden's success in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) achieved the highest percentage of votes for a Democrat since 1988, demonstrating strong urban support. While his vote share in Philadelphia County slightly decreased compared to Clinton's, he still outperformed earlier Democratic candidates like Al Gore and John Kerry in that county.

A significant achievement for Biden was garnering over 100,000 votes in Lancaster County, a traditional Republican stronghold, and securing at least 40% of the vote there, a feat not seen for a Democrat since 1964. This was partly due to strong performance in the city of Lancaster and surrounding areas like Lititz and Columbia. These localized shifts, combined with suburban gains, illustrate the intricate tapestry of voter behavior that ultimately determined the outcome in this crucial swing state.