Israel and Syria: What's Happening Now?

The collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024 presented Israel with a significant geopolitical opportunity. The ensuing power vacuum in Syria, a long-standing adversary, prompted Israel to launch a military invasion into the buffer zone in southwestern Syria, adjacent to the occupied Golan Heights. This strategic move was framed by Israel as a preemptive measure to neutralize 'potential threats' emanating from a destabilized post-war Syria.

By seizing several hundred square miles of territory, Israel effectively expanded its control and altered the regional security calculus. The declaration that the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement with Ba'athist Syria was void underscored a fundamental shift in Israel's policy, signaling a departure from previous understandings and a willingness to unilaterally redefine territorial boundaries and security arrangements.

The invasion was accompanied by a comprehensive military operation codenamed 'Operation Arrow of Bashan.' This operation involved extensive aerial and naval strikes aimed at systematically degrading Syria's military capabilities. Key objectives included crippling the Syrian Armed Forces, neutralizing its air and naval assets, and destroying its chemical weapons stockpiles. The campaign's success in significantly weakening Syria's military infrastructure has profound implications for regional power dynamics.

While initially characterized as a 'temporary' measure, Israel's subsequent assertion of holding the occupied territory for an 'unlimited time' suggests a strategic re-evaluation of its long-term presence and objectives in southern Syria, moving beyond immediate security concerns to potentially establishing a more permanent buffer or sphere of influence.

Israel's actions triggered widespread international condemnation, with numerous states and international bodies accusing the country of violating established principles of international law, including the prohibition of the acquisition of territory by force. The United Nations and various human rights organizations voiced serious concerns regarding the legality and humanitarian consequences of the invasion and subsequent military actions. Syria's interim government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, formally condemned the invasion and demanded Israeli withdrawal.

However, the Syrian government's capacity to resist was severely constrained by the lingering effects of a protracted 14-year civil war, which had devastated the country's infrastructure and economy, leaving it vulnerable to external military pressure and unable to mount a significant counter-offensive.

The conflict did not remain static. In February 2025, Israel intensified its operations, deepening its invasion of southern Syria and conducting significant airstrikes in Damascus. This escalation followed Israel's demand for the Syrian caretaker government to demilitarize southern Syria, highlighting a pattern of imposing security conditions on a weakened state.

Further developments, such as the July 2025 Suwayda clashes, saw Israel continue its airstrikes against Syrian military targets. Notably, Israel began framing these actions as being in defense of the Syrian Druze, a minority population concentrated in the Suwayda Governorate. This shift in justification suggests a strategic attempt to garner support or legitimize continued military involvement by appealing to humanitarian concerns or the protection of specific communities within Syria.

The Israeli invasion of Syria represents a significant disruption to regional stability and international norms. It raises critical questions about the future of Syrian sovereignty, the effectiveness of international law in deterring unilateral military actions, and the potential for further escalation. The prolonged Israeli military presence, coupled with the ongoing instability within Syria, creates a volatile environment with far-reaching consequences for neighboring countries and the broader Middle East.

The conflict underscores the complex interplay of national security interests, geopolitical opportunism, and the enduring challenges of post-conflict reconstruction and state-building in a highly contested region.