Bulgaria's Big Vote Adventure!

The October 27, 2024, parliamentary election in Bulgaria was not an isolated event but the culmination of a profound and protracted political crisis. This election marked the sixth instance of 'snap elections' since 2021, a stark indicator of the nation's inability to establish a stable governing majority. The immediate trigger for the October vote was the failure of all three attempts to form a government following the preceding June 2024 elections.

This recurring pattern suggests systemic issues within Bulgaria's political landscape, potentially stemming from fragmented party systems, deep ideological divides, or a lack of consensus-building mechanisms. The electorate's repeated engagement in these snap elections highlights a democratic process under strain, where the fundamental task of governance-forming a functional parliament and executive-remains elusive, leading to voter fatigue and disillusionment.

The October 2024 election saw eight political parties successfully cross the electoral threshold to gain representation in the National Assembly. The center-right GERB–SDS coalition emerged as the largest single party, securing 25.5% of the vote. However, this victory was largely symbolic in terms of forming a government, as it fell significantly short of the parliamentary majority required to govern independently.

The Bulgarian political system necessitates coalition-building, compelling GERB–SDS to seek alliances with at least two other elected parties to achieve a working majority. The near miss by the nationalist party Velichie, falling just 21 votes short of representation, added another layer of complexity and controversy, particularly in light of subsequent legal challenges. The performance of parties like DPS–NN (led by Delyan Peevski) also played a critical role in the post-election negotiations and the subsequent legal battles.

The aftermath of the October election was characterized by an unusually lengthy and contentious process of government formation. The 51st Parliament was eventually sworn in on November 11, 2024, replacing the 50th. The election of the Speaker of the National Assembly proved to be a significant hurdle, requiring an arduous 11 voting rounds before Natalia Kiselova of BSP–OL was finally elected on December 6.

This extended deliberation underscored the deep divisions and lack of cooperation among the newly elected representatives. Subsequently, President Rumen Radev granted the first negotiation mandate to GERB–SDS on January 15. Despite their plurality, they formed a minority government, a precarious arrangement that included the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and There Is Such a People (ITN), with conditional support from the Rights and Freedoms Movement (DPS) through APS.

The government ultimately took shape under the leadership of GERB politician Rosen Zhelyazkov, highlighting the complex compromises required to achieve even a semblance of executive power.

The legitimacy of the October 2024 election was significantly challenged, leading to a high-profile review by the Constitutional Court. Velichie, along with nearly all other elected parties except DPS–NN, lodged formal complaints contesting the election results and the conduct of the process. This widespread dissatisfaction prompted the Constitutional Court to appoint an independent expert panel to meticulously investigate all allegations.

The ensuing recalculation of votes in March 2025 yielded a dramatic outcome: the court ruled that 16 of the 240 elected Members of Parliament (MPs) had been illegally elected. Furthermore, in a pivotal decision, the court determined that Velichie had, in fact, surpassed the electoral threshold and should have been granted parliamentary representation. This ruling not only reshaped the parliamentary composition but also raised serious questions about electoral integrity and the robustness of Bulgaria's democratic institutions, potentially leading to further political realignments and instability.