Survivorship Bias: The Sneaky Trick Our Brains Play!

Imagine a big race with lots of runners. When the race is over, we see the runners who crossed the finish line. But what about the ones who got tired and stopped?

Survivorship bias is like only looking at the winners and thinking they're super special, without realizing how many others tried but didn't win. It's a sneaky trick our brains can play because we only see the ones who survived or succeeded!

This idea is super old, like, way back to when people were trying to figure out how to build strong ships! During wars, people looked at the airplanes that came back from flying missions. They saw where the bullets hit the planes.

At first, they thought they should add armor to those spots. But a smart person realized they should actually add armor where the planes weren't hit, because those were the spots that let the plane survive!

This is important because it helps us see the whole picture, not just the shiny parts. If we only look at successful companies, we might think starting a business is easy. But we forget about all the companies that tried and didn't do well.

It's like trying to learn how to play a game by only watching the best players. You miss out on all the mistakes and learning that happened before they became champions!

To avoid this trick, we have to remember to look for the 'missing' things. Think about a playground slide. If you only see the kids at the bottom, you might think the slide is super fast.

But you're not seeing the kids who might have gotten stuck halfway or decided not to go down! We need to ask, 'What about the ones who didn't make it?' This helps us make smarter choices and understand things better.